Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
