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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.