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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|